My Life and Times

Marco Longari/Agence France-Presse


Although the conclave could last for days, a pope could be chosen as early as Monday afternoon.

Cardinals Gather Today in Secret to Elect the Next Pope
By DANIEL J. WAKIN

ROME, April 17 - Bathed in mystery and, many believe, the Holy Spirit, the conclave to elect a new pope that opens Monday marries the highest Roman Catholic Church solemnity with one of history's longest-lived electoral experiences.

The event - which has not occurred in more than 26 years but dates back nearly a millennium - is a unique mix of pageantry and practicality, a regal balloting exercise that even a big city ward heeler might recognize.

In theory, the 115 voting cardinals are all candidates. But tradition and human nature work together to create a rough winnowing process.

"They try to be inspired by the will of God in prayer," said Ambrogio M. Piazzoni, a conclave historian who works in the Vatican library. "In the end, it's the cardinals who say who will be the next pope."

The first vote - which could occur as early as Monday night - is likely to be showdown time, Vatican analysts said.

Historically, before being sequestered, the cardinals have already coalesced around several favorites, thanks to formal daily meetings and informal encounters in the days after the pope's death. The strength of support becomes clear in that first vote.

Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger, 78, one of the pope's closest aides and a doctrinal conservative, appeared to have the largest bloc, and Italian analysts said his opponents might first vote for Cardinal Carlo Maria Martini, 78, the more progressive former Milan archbishop and a much-respected figure. But he is considered too infirm to be pope; the votes would serve as a show of force and might, in later rounds, be shifted to a more viable candidate. Cardinal Ratzinger, too, might channel his votes to someone else.

But new options could emerge Tuesday.

"After the first scrutiny, you see the way things are going," Mr. Piazzoni said. "Slowly, slowly, you arrive at a majority."

In fact, opening favorites often do not pick up enough steam during the early rounds of secret balloting. Compromise candidates emerge and power broker cardinals shift their support. Cardinals decide during meals or after-dinner strolls, and convey their preferences in quiet chats.

"You know that your vote is important, but it is one, and you feel a little dominated by the blocs," a Spanish cardinal, Vicente Enrique y Tarancón, was quoted as saying in the 1984 book "Secrets of the Vatican from Pius XII to Pope Wojtyla," by Benny Lai, a journalist who has covered the Vatican for many decades. If the conclaves of the last century are any guide, a pope should be elected by the end of the week. The longest conclave took 14 ballots, lasted five days and produced Pope Pius XI in 1922. The shortest - a day - elected Pius XII in 1939 (three ballots) and John Paul I in 1978 (three or four ballots).

It was not always that way.

The longest conclave took two years, nine months and two days. It ended with the election of Gregory X on Sept. 1, 1271. Gregory, not surprisingly, wrote new rules to speed things up. If no one was elected within three days, he decreed, rations were to be cut to one meal a day. After five more days, the cardinals would be restricted to bread and water.

The next election lasted one day. The new pope, Innocent V, lasted five months.

The wash of grandeur that accompanies the opening of a conclave obscures political maneuvering.

The day begins with a 10 a.m. open Mass for the election of the pope in St. Peter's Basilica. At 4:30 p.m., the cardinals make a procession to the Sistine Chapel, as chanters intone the litany of the saints.

They sit on curve-backed wooden chairs along a dozen long tables, six on a side. They will be able to see Michelangelo's "Last Judgment" on the west wall out of the corner of their eyes.

Specialists have swept the chapel and areas around it for bugs, as Pope John Paul II ordered.

In the chapel, Cardinal Ratzinger, as dean of the cardinals is called upon to sing the hymn "Veni, Creator Spiritus" to invoke the Holy Spirit. He says a short prayer, and the cardinals place a hand on the Gospels and swear an oath spelled out in John Paul's 1996 constitution on papal succession, "Universi Dominici Gregis," or "Shepherd of the Lord's Whole Flock." The cardinals vow to follow his rules, serve faithfully as pope if elected and keep the proceedings secret.

Archbishop Piero Marini, the master of papal liturgical ceremonies, orders, "Extra omnes," "Everyone out." Any attendants leave, and the 115 voting cardinals are left to themselves. Although there are 183 cardinals, only the 117 younger than 80 are permitted to vote and two of them are not attending the conclave for health reasons.

They then decide whether to hold a round of voting or wait until Tuesday morning. The balloting is highly ritualized, minutely detailed by the constitution, involving folded paper ballots and a walk to the altar to deposit of them into an urn.

Two scrutinizers, chosen by lot among the cardinals, each record the votes. A third reads the names aloud so the cardinals can keep their own tallies. After Monday, each day will open with a 7:30 a.m. Mass in the Vatican's Santa Marta residence, where the cardinals moved Sunday, and two rounds of voting will take place in the morning and two in the afternoon, accompanied by prayers and Bible readings.

Any notes the cardinals keep must be handed over and burned, although a permanent record of the proceedings is kept in the secret archives. Other popes allowed notes to be kept for posterity, but these cardinals are operating under rules of secrecy reinforced by John Paul II. The ballots, too, are burned, producing the smoke that emerges from the scrutinized chimney. A second stove has been added this time for smoke canisters to reinforce the signal. Bells will ring when white smoke rises, signifying a pope has been elected, another innovation. Black smoke means no pope has been chosen.

If no cardinal wins a two-thirds majority, 77 votes, after the third day, the cardinals will pause for a day for prayer and discussion, as John Paul ordered. Voting resumes for seven ballots, followed by another pause; then seven more and another pause; then seven more. If there is still no pope, John Paul said, the cardinals may resort to a simple majority, or 58. Such a turn would come around May 1.

The method has evolved over the course of the church's history. In the early centuries, the people of Rome, warring aristocratic families and emperors chose popes. St. Fabian was selected in 236, the legend goes, because a dove landed on his head.

The job was given exclusively to the cardinals in 1179, with the two-thirds majority rule. Irregularities abounded. Julius II become pope in 1503 by bribing fellow cardinals.

Now, the process has grown to resemble local Italian elections, wrote Orazio La Rocca, a journalist who covers the Vatican, in his book "The Conclave." It can be seen in the way the ballots are counted and the move to a second round runoff if necessary. In fact, the constitution was partly the work of an Italian cardinal, Mario Francesco Pompedda, a Vatican jurist.

The election of John Paul II, whose death on April 2 set in motion this papal transition, offers hints of what may come in the next few days.

That conclave started pitting Giuseppe Siri, the conservative archbishop of Genoa, against Giovanni Benelli, the more progressive archbishop of Florence and protégé of Pope Paul VI.

In the first round, each received roughly 30 votes, according to "Heirs of the Fisherman," a book about papal succession by John-Peter Pham, a former Vatican diplomat. They seesawed until Cardinal Siri reached 70 votes, just 5 shy of white smoke.

But he gave a newspaper interview the day before the conclave and made comments that were viewed as critical of John Paul I, Vatican II and sharing power with the bishops.

The interview was supposed to have been embargoed until the cardinals were sequestered, but the article came out the day the conclave started. The cardinals received copies. Cardinal Benelli was blamed for orchestrating the early publication and distributing the copies.

Less well known are indications, reported by Mr. Lai in "Secrets of the Vatican," that Cardinal Siri was told that if he would consider Cardinal Benelli as his secretary of state, he would receive enough votes. But the Genovese cardinal refused, and the stalemate continued.

That opened the way to Karol Wojtyla of Poland. The next morning, he won 11 votes, and his supporters pressed the case for him over coffee. The cardinals were under pressure to act quickly to show the world they were unified. That afternoon, Cardinal Wojtyla found himself with an overwhelming majority.

Chroniclers suggest one crucial factor was the support of German-speaking cardinals, led by Franz König of Austria, and the Polish-American John Krol. But the Italian deadlock played an undeniable role. "God was served by the malignity of men and the division among the Italians," Mr. Lai quoted Cardinal Enrique y Tarancón as saying.

The cardinals will be operating in a cocoon of secrecy and rigid principles laid down by John Paul. They are forbidden access to television, radio, publications, the telephone and mail. They are not permitted to exchange messages with the outside world, which presumably includes e-mail. Any attempt by a cardinal to introduce outside interference is punishable by automatic excommunication. The cardinals are not to make deals to vote for a candidate in exchange for a concession. Friendships or animosities, news media pressure and a search for popularity should have no influence.

Just about the only advice John Paul gave on how to choose the pope was this: pick the person who is "most suited to govern the universal church in a fruitful and beneficial way." And he urged the one selected not to flee the burden.

Historians, in fact, cite a few cases of deep reluctance.

When Cardinal Giuseppe Sarto, about to become Pius X in 1903, was asked the traditional question of whether he would accept the papacy, several accounts describe him as tearful and almost desperate.

"Oh, my dear mamma, my good mamma!" Mr. La Rocca quoted him as saying. "I accept, on the cross."


Copyright 2005 The New York Times Company | Home | Privacy Policy | Search | Corrections | RSS | Help | Back to Top